Imagine you’re running a sports book.
1. How many times has a company *ever* delisted from ASX — then listed on Nasdaq?
2. How many times has a company *ever* withdrawn its Nasdaq IPO *twice* — then succeeded on the 3rd attempt?
This is the Venn diagram of likelihood we are dealing with. These are the odds.
Are we talking about the combined likelihood of 2 events that, individually, have never happened? And now we expect them to both happen at the same time? For this Board?
That’s not to say there can’t be a first time. But let’s not act like yesterday was Santa wrapping a present to make the surprise all the merrier. Ask yourself what the odds are of Eddie the Eagle becoming Usain Bolt.
Past performance has certainly been no basis for a strong valuation. So we were counting on future projections to get across the line. And the underwriters did their due diligence, and simply ran away. (From a medical monitoring company, during a global pandemic.)
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