Assumptions: Trading: 3-4MT GNC have previously stated that: 1) they trade 25% of recievals; 2) account for 35% of bulk export from eastern states. + international demand for feed wheat. Port throughput: 4-5MT grain. 1MT moved already (3 months). Shipping stem has 6.2MT booked for the remaining 9 months. Although, rail access and elevator capacity reduced at several ports. Malt: Unchanged from last year: More production online, offsetting flat earnings.
Unknowns: AUD: re. China; resurgent USD. Malt business: +/- 5% currency fluctuation = approx AUD $5M EBITDA / PA Production in the ukraine/Russia (feed wheat) & US (corn, red wheat).
Looking forward, 2011 has promise for another big year with good moisture profiles backed by solid fundamentals. Cheers, MS
GNC Price at posting:
$7.56 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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