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im a little surprised that anyone posting here believes that the situation in Ukraine has any bearing on Graincorp performance.
This is the OEC breakdown of Ukrainian grain exports for 2022
Of these markets, only Indonesia has any relevance to Australia exports. This gap has now been filled by the Bogasari (being the main grain importer in Indonesia) infrastructure that is now on line in Aus, and smaller shipments from the East coast.
Pakistan does take a little grain from Australia, but this is limited to Bin Qasim only - but does not make a dent in Australian exports.
Simply put - if the shipping stems from the graincorp silos are full- which they are for the next year or so, Graincorp are maximizing the profit from their infrastructure, right through the supply chain.
The 10% fluctuations in the SP are being completely manipulated by robotic trading, its a very low risk strategy from those being this, as the inherent value (MC) of graincorp is quite consistent for the foreseeable future.
(20min delay)