good Question@Sharespikefrom what i know of Graincorp, there is...

good Question@Sharespike
from what i know of Graincorp, there is limited enthusiasm for increasing capacity at any of the ports - as the return on investment would take years if not decades to recoup. There is plenty of storage facility inland - but of course there places are generally small and can lose a bit through poor storage or mice.

Indeed at both Port Kembla and Fishermans Island in Brisbane, several silos have been converted to cement storage (unloading) - which seems counter productive when there are large harvests to export. But on balance, you have to consider the average years, and also the drought years where the silos can be empty for a long period.

It's a whole supply chain thing - if the product can be shipped out at the same rate as can be delivered in, then the system is working. It would be interesting to see an analysis of how this has been working ! I am sure there are bright young things that like spreadsheets are doing this for Graincorp, and making all sorts of theoretical predictions, that will be totally ignored (probably rightly so).

Portland itself has its own limitations, as to ship size that can be loaded with grain, and is often a part load port. Original design was for smaller vessels. Portland as well, does have long distances to travel for inbound grain, it is often quicker (and cheaper to go through Geelong or South Australian ports. Another issue with Portland - i don't know if this is still the case, but it was extremely expensive to bring ships into that Port - it used to be the highest in Aus about 10 years ago, by some margin. So if you have a smaller load, the $ per tonne in using Portland goes up significantly.

There are many dynamics in this industry. Graincorp have been concentrating on more sophisticated blending ability at some of their terminals, and this is certainly very good business. It does bring a better return for their customers, in that they are not selling (wheat) that has better specs (moisture, protein, falling numbers etc) than what is being contracted, but actual 'on - spec' so the higher spec cargo does not get price compromised.

Interesting things afoot anyway. My charting shows that Graincorp has been manipulated down extremely harshly the past week or so, on low volumes, and is in serious oversold territory, This is on no real news, after having a narrower trading band for a couple of months. It looks like a certain party (no names mentioned but @Hopeful9 has a pretty good idea who is behind it, as well as myself). So follow the money guys. All the time you see single digit share orders .... it becomes clear.