This is the tail end of a recent article from www.kpler.com:
The question moving forward is whether prices could continue to ease into 2023. This outcome looks less likely. According to the USDA, world supply of wheat for the 2022/2023 growing year is set to finish at 780 Mt, nearly 9 Mt below projected demand. This is an improvement from initial forecasts in July of last year, when the imbalance was projected to come in at more than 12 Mt, but the shortfall will still force a draw on inventories, providing support for prices. This aligns with the situation in Ukraine. While exports have increased off the zero lower bound, Ukraine is still far from the sort of export levels that were normal before the invasion began. USDA estimates have Ukrainian wheat production at 21 Mt for 2022/2023, down from 33 Mt estimated for the 2021/2022 period. This is largely a result of a decline in harvested area, estimated at 5.4 million hectares, down 28% from 2021/2022.
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GNC is a handler and an adder of value such as in canola oil processing, not a graingrower, so in one sense GNC is agnostic as to price per tonne. Even when wheat for instance is downgraded, Japan seems to willingly buy 'feed wheat'.
However the demand scenario above is quite positive, implying it won't be hugely diffcult for GNC to find destinations for its significant exportable surplus.
GNC Price at posting:
$7.48 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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