GNC General Discussion, page-193

'Mr Market' isn't always correct, as evidenced by yesterday's media suggesting large superannuation funds may be about to record their second year of negative returns. This hasn't been my experience and I hope not yours either.

You and I can undertake research into company finances, including gearing and cash flows, consider the effect from externalities such as in GNC's case how the level of domestic and especially international demand for grains is tracking against supply - for instance, apparently the USA wheat belt (centred on Kansas with 25 per cent of typical annual production) is in drought - plus look at other factors such as world wheat, canola, barley and sorghum prices, opine whether trade barriers exist or are becoming worse or less of a problem and apply some commonsense as to how GNC's handling performance will go.

While we can't predict a drought or deluge, we can examine BOM data and make assumptions about soil condition We won't ever be more than 60 per cent correct as we're not agronomists but combined with reading of any available statistics and media, we can hazard a reasonable guess.

I had thought this year would be 80 per cent likely to see severe NSW and Victorian droughts. So far that seems to be wrong, but early days for crops that aren't even in the ground.