Nervous to read that you have done that Hopeful9, especially...

Nervous to read that you have done that Hopeful9, especially with your knowledge of the stock, since I still hold.

I note the concern of others about the export price of grain and lower rainfall predictions, but GNC has been very conservative about its through-the-cycle EBITDA estimates - which it has now raised to $310m (about $1.37/sh). My back-of-the envelope estimates have that $310m EBITDA translating to NPAT of about $150m (66cps) and an annual dividend of 40cps (with GNC targeting a 60% payout ratio). This represents a grossed-up yield of 6.3% on a SP of $9. None of this accounts for a profit / special dividend on its divestment of UMG if the takeover at foot proceeds.

Macquarie's most recent update forecasts dividends of 47c in FY23 and 38c in FY24. It notes the value of GNC's UMG investment is around $120m. It does drop its 12-month price target from $10.80 to $9.08 as it now values GNC on sustainable EBITDA only (previously valued on average of current year + sustainable EBITDA, which of course included a near-record year). Rates - Outperform.

Hope you still plan on covering the stock ...