GNC General Discussion, page-245

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    This is its basis for making its El Nino forecast:

    " The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced in early June that the El Niño SouthernOscillation (ENSO) had been shifted to El Niño "alert" (previously a "watch" rating). Thisindicates an approximately 70% chance of El Niño forming in 2023 which is approx. 3x thenormal likelihood of El Niño formation in any given year."
 
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