ALLlets face it, the Grain exports ex Ukraine have no...

ALL

lets face it, the Grain exports ex Ukraine have no relevancies to Australian Grain exports.

Different grade, different markets.

This data from June 2023 - Grain exports ex Ukraine




Apart from China, there is a little Ukraine grain that goes to Italy as far as Aus concerned, (Durum Wheat - traditionally from Newcastle) , and Canola to Netherlands.

the stats above don't lie. many of these exports are by rail or 'small' ships, European shipping is dominated to max 10000 tonne vessels. The shipping ex aus is frequently the 60,000mt +/- 10% (panamax vessels) or the 40000 mt shipments (handysize vessels).


apart from that, any impact the situation has on Graincorp is negligible.

We are at the time of year now, when the producers are filling local (ie Aus) markets first, and until the strength of the next crop is known, (which i believe will be rather good), the export market takes a back seat this time of year. Exports of wheat kick off in November, barley and canola a little earlier.

The point i am trying to make here, is that the grain price (mainly wheat) is irrelevant in global/local dynamic.

Now on a local level, in 'most' ports were Graincorp have and export facility, there is a secondary export terminal, my analysis of the last year shows that these terminals have picked up around 35% of the export market, and remembering that Graincorp is primarily a handler, (but with deep infrastructure going back to onsite storages, transport etc) still control around 65% of exports (as handlers)
Now the thing to remember, is that the Graincorp export sites have very sophisticated systems that allows blending to a high degree. The is a very big advantage when it comes the export market, and also to the operators that sell to Graincorp.

Accurate blending is a very important part of what Graincorp does.

I shall give you an example : - when i was involved in the grain trade on the west coast of the USA, and this was way back, the silos there, (mainly Astoria River ) all of the dust collected, was recirculated back into the loading system, not illegal, not shonky, as this was part of the original analysis of the product.... now Graincorp never did this, but i believe that they have the ability to do this now.... its a fraction of 1% of the shipment, but on the basic business model - 'advantage by small increments', then it is anther plus for graincorp.

So to wrap up, i will suggest 2023 / 2024 will be far better that the doom and gloom sayers. 2024/2025 will be extremely challenging.

Oh yes...the BBC and ABC (plus all of the other uniformed media outlets - I have a name suggested by a great comedian - who i shall not name) that Considered an American Indian name 'Talking Bollocks' as being very appropriate.


Cheers all Ports