I would suggest the fall is also based on the new BOM outlook, which is pretty crap. However some promising rain on the 10-15 day GFS model so fingers crossed. Secondly GNC is struggling as crops from the Central West and north are going backwards/are being cut for hay. NSW exports are priced at big negative margins so ports will largely be quiet, and VIC is basically negative margin as well (outside of barley to China and a few other smaller volume commodities), and QLD is going to be a net importer (not worst thing for a port owner). Growers are going to avoid the GNC system as much as possible come harvest and use on-farm storage instead, outcomes a much better for them.
I am short so take it as a grain of salt but my view is you'll get better buying opps than right now. IF we get a decent spring, I'll be the first to cover my position.
Also,
@fourdollars, can you explain your view on heavy capex on grain infrastructure being a mitigating factor?
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