GNC General Discussion, page-309

Hi All

have not posted for a while - the doom and gloom surrounding the el nino, seemed to spook the 'investing community' most of which have no concept of what el nino means.

fact is, there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere - and it is not only el nino that is keeping it there.

now what i am seeing on the ground, is that the 'really smart university educated analysists and beancounters' have equated el nino with no crop. Now these are the fertilizer people, there was very little ferts coming into NSW ports in the last couple of months - suddenly there is a scramble to up stocks. The Fert people have gone from a 'just in case' business model - flown past the 'just in time model' to - 'oh sh!t we cant supply the market'

That's what happens when you rely on experts.

Now the 2023/4 harvest is reasonable, with respect to exports, however the secondary handlers in most ports are taking more and more from Graincorp - this is concerning. I think that Graincorp took their eye off the ball, and didn't realize how much stuff was actually out there, and let their competitors through a wide open door, assuming the 2023/4 season would be poor - (but hey we have insurance !!!!!)

So after a few heads roll, Graincorp should be positioning for 24/25

As SP goes - as per Hopefuls original question, anything under $9 is a steal.