A few highlights from Macquarie's latest research report:
- Seasonal outlook improved with recent rain; 2024 growing year settingup well.
- Valuation remains undemanding, in our view; GNC trading at discountto peers, its historical avgs and to our asset replacement cost est.
- The 2023/24 east coast winter harvest looks to have surpassed marketand our expectations with GNC interim receivals of 7.9mmt (vs ourprior fct of ~7.5mmt). Better-than-expected harvest is a boost to GNC'sStorage & Logistics biz and magnified by the ~25% increase in receivalfees. Offsetting this is GNC's introduction of a free storage period of ~6months (we est ~$20m rev impact).
- Outlook for planting/growing season has improved markedly overpast 3 months with timely rainfall in Nov-Jan, improvement in soilmoisture (Fig 16) and as fears of a dry summer go unfounded. We expectuplift to FY24 summer crop output vs FY23
- B/S rock solid; we fct core net cash of $340m in FY24 and FCF of $64mgiving GNC ample capacity for organic growth, e.g., crush expansion, M&Aand announced up-to $50m buyback
- Valuation: TP of $9.70 unchanged using avg of asset replacement cost &through-the-cycle earnings. Our asset replacement cost analysis suggestslarge gap between share px & intrinsic value providing valn support.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 2047 | $8.65 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 2047 | 8.650 |
1 | 2110 | 8.630 |
3 | 4797 | 8.620 |
1 | 2110 | 8.610 |
1 | 21 | 8.600 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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8.670 | 3965 | 1 |
8.680 | 2110 | 1 |
8.690 | 4797 | 3 |
8.700 | 2450 | 2 |
8.780 | 500 | 1 |
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