Seriously some of you need to walk down to the 7-Eleven and buy a bottle ( and a large one) of reality....and skull it hard..
The offer of 57c was conditional....that means not guaranteed.....Under the existing SIA 57c was the price if all conditions were met....and guess what...they weren't.....The NDRC have said the price was not suitable....and you know what....they are right... 57c is way over current market odds....im sorry but it is..
Alot of you are hypnotised into belief that SDL is the eternal pot of gold....its not worth $1.7b or 57c in todays market...nowhere near it....
Sorry i dont read 2010 research, profit projections based on feasibility studies.., first mover etc and apply it to today......its means didly....world is different
I got some AGO research valuing it at $4, i got stacks of $8 FMG buy notes.....SDL target price 70c......halve it!!
Everything is telling you that....Shareprice, global debt markets, global peers, spot prices.....forget 57c ....we aint worth it im sorry...sure i woulda loved it but hey....we wouda been the burglars then!!
So the price wasnt dropped under that SIA.... That SIA couldnt be effected..so their had to be ammendments made and agreed by all parties including price, no shop clause and others...
Dont for 1second think BHP, Anglor or RIO wouldnt have done the same..
And forget legal claims....what you think these companies advised by top legal and corporate firms arent covered in every angle to the max?....every angle is covered...The SIA didnt effect....
A firm takeover for flinders gets dropped over a russian female unknown....that deal was a cert.....it was a total russian get out of jail free card....they wanted out!!
Before we all start ringing the lawyers on what would be a ride like Willy wonkers chocolate factory, we should all xross our fingers that spot prices dont fall sub 85, or Europe/ China dont suffer a meltdown or further softening.....because we can probably kiss 45c goodbye...
In an era of further supply coming on stream from everywhere around the world, i dont believe China are desperate or frantic for SDL....yes they want it..but not any any price.....we arent deal critical for their long term goal...a 10 year delay in our project will do nothing to the supply equation or prices.
Whilst hedgies are posturing and acting all bravado....make no mistake that if events worsen over the next 3months they will be out the door that fast if no counter emerges.....they are risk takers but not fools..
Sorry im not cheering from the rooftops and joining the freedom march....i love SDL and im annoyed too...but id be annoyed being long AGO at $2.70 or FMG at $5...(luckily im not).....we are a $5b unfunded African play in a very tough environment....i cheer for Hanlong to remain stedfast.....before you all post and rip into me....for 5 minutes imagine if SDL had said Monday that they couldnt agree on price and parties had terminated.....with every iron ore play under major pressure we' be lucky to be over 20c....
I really think we need them more than they need us at the moment...Until any other party steps up our options are limited....
Good luck with the next bidder paying overs!!
I hope we all get a counter now to maximise our returns....geez i do....and i hope that we dont get any nasty shocks in spot prices or global markets..And that we maybe get a strong recovery and other bidders see value in this tier 1 asset....
Ok start to rip into me..lucky im playing golf tomoz so i wont read the replies
SDL Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
