Mr SV,
'The problem with your posts and most ramp posts are that they are theories (I've posted theories in the past)... they are hypothetical situations.. We both don't really know what they're intentions are... what and why they are doing things..'
Yes, I agree that the vast majority of posts are pure speculation, some more than others. And so the only 'facts' are what can be shown to be true.
A) they went into the CR without underwriting - fact. Why, is speculation but most experienced SM operators, including a few of the savvy traders on BRN, would have question this as pretty risky.
B) BRN senior management and large holders have never given any commitment to take up 100% of their allocation - fact. Why, is again speculation but most experienced traders and operators would see this as a red flag.
C) Peter with his very substantial holding did not partake - fact. As has been discussed he could have had his holdings registered to an Aussie address in the weeks prior to the CR. He did not. Why, is let more speculation and, yes again, the eperinced operators would see this a red flag.
D) The original offer end date was extended - fact. We are told due to Anzac day and Australia Post taking several days. Both of these events are in the PD so should be considered as fact. Why the management and their advisors did not consider these matters is pure speculation. What we can reasonably assume is that as at last Friday the offer was well under water. Why it experienced such a low uptake when the overwhelming majority of shares are owned by an 'inner circle' would suggest some doubt within the ranks.
E) Half way through the extension period we get an ANN to say that about 50% of the offer is now underwritten at 6% fee - fact. Why such an exact amount is speculation, but it is rather unusual situation. Is the amount the current shortfall, or less than the current shortfall. Or is it to cover some of the commitments that have still not been made good. It is reasonable to assume that BRN would not waste precious SH funds on paying for underwriting when they had the $ in the bank. So it is reasonable to assume that at the original offer date less than half had been taken up.
I understand that for existing SH and especially those who have already paid for shares in the CR, the above is unpalatable and that I and a few others who dare to question the management team will be subject to the usual barrage of personal attacks from the usual mob.
I'll repeat my view. If the underwriters end up with a packet of shares then they will dump them pretty fast.
When the CR was first announced, I with some prescient ability, suggested that the SP would possible drift towards the offer price and that would put the CR under pressure. I got attacked for those view.
Maybe some of the newbies will at least sit back and consider which posters they should at least view with an open mind, and which are vested interest rampers and underwater short term investors who are a little naive if the ways that traders will manipulate them.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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