I'm not saying ESG's gas would be stranded - they have plans for their own monetisation via LNGN as well as their domestic contracts.
But Santos's 35% could find itself without a direct market if domestic gas contracts are filled by ESG and AGL while ESG's surplus gas goes to LNGN.
Santos would be unlikely to bother with a small LNGN-sized plant off Newcastle, so if they don't use it for GLNG they'd have to sell the gas to someone. Either pipeline to Qld to Shell (very expensive) or just sell it to LNGN.
But yes, it's definitely all speculation! I just find it interesting that depending on developments, Santos could conceivably be either a buyer of or seller to ESG.
ESG Price at posting:
73.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held