H
The 50% to 80% risk is on Bellatrix that is a BH that sits above SNE and CNE are very confident in the oil migration hence the 80% COS. Remember that the first two wells are SNE2 and 3 and we know we have oil so there will be success. CN said that SNE is a very nice container with a gas cap: The first two wells are to confirm how full the container is i.e. 330mb or more: CN expects the 330mb at SNE to grow, CN also said that COP wouldn't start planning until we had over 700mb and we should get that number easy!
My gut feeling is that there will be a small CR before drilling and a large CR after SNE2, I stated the last part in a post back in Feb.
It's good to know that COP are the de facto operators as CNE organised the drilling of FAN and SNE and the cost overruns and problems were all due to the Cajun Express. COP was not willing to take risks hence the down time, so I believe we should hand the cost overruns to CNE but back then we were happy to take what we got. The future drilling is using a drill ship organised by COP so we will not have the same problems.
When you look at the team running Senegal we have 10 people from CNE 30 from COP and our team of 3-4 people. FAR has now employed a reservoir engineer that is embedded in the COP office in the US.
COP are very good operators and will take their time to do things once and the most safe and cost effective way. CN no longer likes the comparison to the Jubilee field as that was rushed and now have huge cost issues as the field was not designed correctly due to the rush to get to first oil.
Peter Nicholls is our exploration manager and is a legend, he is the man that picked the sites for SNE and FAN. He is also very well connected in COP as he had to introduce some of the new COP team members to the original team.
It's all very positive, CN answered all my question before I got to ask them, sorry I'm not as creative as OOO, I see think as black and white, it is what it is and I like it.
It was my 24th wedding anniversary last night and I did get into a fight with my dear wife before I left to go to the IP
GLTA DYOR and IHNI
OFL
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