USA sales logged $100m; Avenue post balance date “continues to trade strongly, materially above pre-acquisition levels”. A number of new marketplace partnerships going live September 21 such as Target US and Walmart US, including kick starting the likes of Macy’s.
USA stimulus measures have essentially brought forward five years of retail sales growth into ‘21/‘22.
Apart from general uplift in spend, greater assortment on Avenue site, CCX benefits from higher margin CCX branded formal dress resulting from the reopening trade.
Maths tells us sales, inclusive of 12 months of Evan’s (also now trading at pre acquisition levels which were $46m annualised v less than $14m contribution for ‘21 given December 21 entry) Navabi (say $15m) and reopened trade in US (partnership sales restart), partially offset by Australian lockdowns, should still exceed $300m in ‘22. My ball park guess is $320m (guess only). Nil Australian Avenue and Evan’s brand contribution to sales, which is conservative. Canadian (new Ontario fulfilment site), Middle East (Alshaya/Debenhams Concession stores) and Euroland growth also not factored in as well.
Ebitda moves to above $50m, plus $70m cash.
My own Rough Valuation guide between $1.4 - $1.8 bn within reasonable range given still in an emerging stage of global growth, call it $1.6 bn for now.
$2bn near term valuation not out of the question should current half year sales continue at same organic growth rates.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
