Hi valin, lol, I'm still in LNC as well.
The difference is not that great, they both have good tech/gassifiers etc. LNC also is into module GTL and have procured Velocys IP for exclusive use in some Countries when used with UCG.
LNC may eventually succeed in QLD as well, one may possibly consider temporary hiatus rather than abandonment. They are also proceeding with the Chinchilla Decommissioning and Rehab plan. There is also a court case going on but you might want to take a squiz in the LNC threads for more info on that and LNC/QLD relations.
Just dealing with CNX here, they have been proceeding with requirements as outlined in ISP report (which at the end of the day virtually ratified UCG) to finalize the UCG Process on Bloodwood Creek Demo Project. CNX have been actively working with the DEHP to resolve issue's (perceived or otherwise). The end result looking at a new UCG Gov. Policy and regulatory processes. The Rehab Plan being the last of this and then the ball is in QLD Gov's court to address Policy and Regulatory Processes. The DEHP have also apparently retained independent (I read ISP) experts to assist. Here is the ISP report if your interested...
http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/legislation-pdf/isp-final-report-cs-review.pdf
to save you searching, this is a good read....
Neil Scott – Neil Scott Lawyers, Sidney, Australia
Regulatory issues in the commercialisation of UCG – the Australian experience.
http://www.fossilfuel.co.za/conferences/2014/UCG3/Session-3/03Neil-Scott.pdf
As you know CNX have extensive coal holdings in the Surat (over 2Bt). Their proposed new project (Blue Gum) would if successful, go a long way to addressing future domestic gas reserve concerns. My speculation is that this would also alleviate future pressure on CSG reserves and continue to allow exports of such than to have the Gov. start putting holds on percentages. So in this case it may well be that CSG and UCG have an aligned agenda.
Of course once the UCG door is successfully opened it will not be put back in the box. NSW and VIC who have a public constituency largely against CSG may eventually welcome UCG with open arms once the misconceptions and some education of the process has been disseminated. That is just my view for future potential down the track.
IMO CNX are at present the front runners in QLD and hence Australia at the moment for UCG projects, but it is not done and dusted at this point. To get the Blue Gum Commercial Project underway they will need a Financial JV. Where they are on that, I don't know. CNX has announced a proposed timeline of expectations regarding this project. Unlike LNC (at this stage) their timelines to date have been pretty close, but not tested at the Commercial level. Should expectations be reached and UCG Policy and Regulatory approach issued by QGov. then it will be interesting to see what develops or any ann's in relation to financial JV. Possibly starting off with the usual MOU of such discussions before proceeding to JV contract.
Indications are strong that CNX will be able to move forward, but we won't move beyond speculative stock status IMO until the Commercial Project is up and running. As I've said before, many financiers will want to see the proof in the pudding eg Commercial scale cost/profit/product analysis prior to sanctioning such. Again IMO, we will need the first project up, running and under our belt prior to any snowballing affect.
The hardest thing at the moment for myself is keeping objective perspective. CNX has jumped through every hoop and my confidence is high that QLD Gov. will issue a new Policy and regulatory requirements. Whether or not there is delays in such remains to be seen. Whether or not other UCG companies (such as LNC) will have to provide satisfy the same requirements that has led CNX to this point also remains to be seen. I would like to think that at this stage other companies would have to satisfy the those requirements. Hence why I consider CNX will have a leg up at this point for UCG in QLD/Aust.
It's been a long time getting this far, but given the approvals and finance I think UCG may well succeed with flying colours, but objectively, a little ways to go yet even if we are in the final straight. For my money though I consider it a reasonable and likely speculation at this point and why I've more than tripled my Share holdings and Options over the last 6 months. Keeping in mind success will not occur overnight, but I consider we may see a number of leaps and bounds on the route to actual flying.
I do believe UCG is coming out of the closet so to speak.
Anyway, as you can see I'm quite bullish, others may have alternative opinions. At the end of the day doing ones own research and getting professional advice is quite often the best route to follow.
