Thank you for that! very thorough. Ill double check but i was...

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RockZ

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26/04/19

20:59

Post #: 38283079
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Originally posted by muppet655: ↑

Don't take this the wrong way, but I'm glad you're not my accountant. There are many, many errors in your calculations.

I think you've confused AUD and USD in a few places. The company expects costs to be around $430 AUD ($300 USD) per tonne when at nameplate. They're also achieving around $600-$650/tonne USD currently ($930 AUD) (according to interviews/neighbour benchmarks). So that makes for potentially very health margins, far above those you've calculated.

Additionally also been pre-paid $15 million from Ganfeng, have the capital raising monies and have cash reserves from prior such that they're not in danger of running out of money for at least a few quarters even without new income.

You've also counted debt repayments several times over, they're paying intermittently such that the costs in one quarter can't be extrapolated to each subsequent one (I think the $13.5 million you've counted every quarter is actually six months of interest). 15% annually of $175 million is $26 million, not the $55 million you've come up with.

I think the sales price is less of a concern than their costs of production, so as others have said getting to nameplate is by far the most important thing right now. If that can be achieved they'll be making plenty to cover costs.

To correct your numbers, gross profit at nameplate with floor to ceiling prices of $550 to $900 is more like $50,000,000 to $120,000,000 USD annually. Less $26 million interest payments and a few million more for admin etc.

Hope this helps.

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Thank you for that! very thorough. Ill double check but i was just thinking that usually all pricing is consistant within the reporting or what ever. Ill double check but a 30% increase im still concerned.
I aslo saw Macquarrie (who are a lot smarter than prob all of us) have a price target of 9c....thats concerning, and the other analysts have it at 13c...basically the CR price..... what do you think?

AJM Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last 2.9¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $8.789M

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Thank you for that! very thorough. Ill double check but i was...

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Thank you for that! very thorough. Ill double check but i was...

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