going forward, page-2

Metallica still hold

Top 20 still holding.

Problem is coal sentiment worldwide sucks.

Problem is coal sentiment in Australia sucks even more.

Problem is Xstrata needs to green light Wandoan for Surat Basin rail to proceed. But it is increasingly looking like they will delay / defer the project. Hence the uncertainty besetting the likes of MTE, SMR, COK and other Surat miners.

Investing now means you are betting;

1. A rail solution will be found with or without Xstrata.
2. Aust change of government will remove or dilute Carbon Tax and MRRT.
3. Thermal Coal prices will rise to at US$110/t by 2016.
4. AUD$ will fall by 2016.
5. Thermal Coal consumption will continue to increase, particularily with India and China.


By the way I hope Xstrata do defer, as that removes 22mtpa of new supply.