Going forward..., page-412

Bazsa,

Re you're questions:

1. CYP have said in unlikely event Fuji don't exercise, they will go to phase 2 with fuji for GVHD. Even without that we have 2 other phase 2 trials.

2. Your question is asking what about the risk that Fuji takeover and we double our money? Of course we want a lot more that $2, but i would not tell someone not to buy a stock because there is a risk that there will be a takeover at a significant premium.

3. Fuji are around 8-9%, ie second largest shareholder.

4. Only phase 2 required for entry to market in Japan and phase 2 planned for 2019. 

5. The milestone payment details not disclosed but are estimated at $60m. In market Fuji estimate CYP will receive USD30m pa, but as far as I'm aware they have not stated how long they expect it will take to build revenue to that level.

Re competition, CYP works better, faster, safer (requires less than 20% of dose) and is cheaper than MSB's product so you would have to agree that if you were a rational patient you'd chose CYP over MSB. Unfortunately MSB has sunk $600m into development (i guess a lot of the capital raised has also had to fund silvio's approx $2m a year salary, that's excluding the 10s of millions of dollars, if not 100s that he and waislitz have jointly made from share sales), so MSB are kind of left with little option but to keep trying to tread along.

You also mentioned CYP burn rate in your following email, small cash spend, and not really an issue, two of the three phase 2 trials will be externally funded. CYP will fund CLI trial, and while CYP have adequate cash to fund, we would expect milestone payments from Fuji to be used towards that.

Very curious to see your analysis that rates CYP a sell and MSB a buy. I understand you can get quite attached to a stock like MSB, especially after losing so much over the past year, but at some point just need to cut your losses and emotional ties. I will definitely give one thing to MSB, the CEO must be one of the best salesmen in the market, his ability to continually raise cash is exceptional.