I have compounded at 30% per annum over the last 7 years, even...

I have compounded at 30% per annum over the last 7 years, even after a niggly $400,000 loss in 2019/2020 (40%) from shorting Tesla early 'cause frauds are so obsessively interesting.

All three points you make are correct, the market is dumb as rocks in relation to ORG it's going to be worth 2-3x as much with a very high degree of certainty. Of course energy markets will normalise even with Angus building this 300MW peaker it'll be interesting to see if the CCGT (base load) gets built in light of Origin's agreement to export gas from north to south. Or if the govt. steps in to build something.

High prices are the cure for high prices and vice versa, with electricity the more generation is built the more coal get the shove and the flexible types can thrive. The market will balance and imbalances won't even persist that long in the scheme of things.

Regardless if a bad outcome is priced (govt' intervention in market) the residual risk is that things get less worse. We have the opposite situation of high electricity prices in NZ at present, again reversion to the mean will happen as market participants respond.

I put 100% of my investment money into that 1 microcap, it helps me focus - it's hard to lose money buying a company for less than cash. You care about the management when it's your whole investment fund in one company.

Nowadays I invest in 3-5 max of my best ideas but this is not for everyone - the diversified basket of beaten down stocks is not silly at all. The benefit of diversification for me is that when an idea plays out it provides a windfall that can be re-invested - as I say I don't take a position if there's a chance I could be wrong on the price in relation to fundamentals.

Ben Graham was the second best investor ever and as he said "diversification is a pragmatic repudiation of the concept of individual selection". For me there's only so many sectors I understand well so if something is in the zone I am going to knock it out of the field it's a shame to muck around on the sidelines.