Our system is different as it is dominated by hydro-electricity,...

Our system is different as it is dominated by hydro-electricity, we are seeing price spikes due to a dry year.
Wind is apparently more consistent year to year, I think solar would be the similar so it's not a situation Australia will be in.

Your time-line in Australia is driven by Liddell, that's why there's so much controversy - Liddell is taking off 400MW in 12 months then the remaining 1200MW in 24 months. There's more solar coming on line but I could see a balanced market after Liddell.

300MW of peaker generation will come in as the last of Liddell is gone, that's been sanctioned by Angus's deadline it seems.

Port Kembla is a wild-card, Andrew Forrest was talking about building a CCGT - I think there will be limited appetite for that because it's a base load station more like the coal units and because it was to be part of an import terminal which Origin has effectively sabotaged with recent announcements of a plant to increase gas supply capacity out of APLNG down to New South Wales.

These last few developments were announced in the last few weeks - I will be interested to see how it plays out.
deletethisbithttps://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-budget-money-for-new-gas-plant-casts-doubt-over-whether-it-will-be-built-20210512-p57r96.html