Origin has mentioned during their earnings call, how much the thermal stations are used depends on their contractual position for fuel.
So we don't need the other coal power-stations to be decommissioned but they will not be used often if prices remain low, the market could become balanced simply as contracted (take or pay) gas and coal supply rolls off or if they have room to pile up more coal in stockpiles.
ORG claimed that Eraring has flexible agreements for coal which allow them to cycle it pretty hard - I got the impression the analyst wasn't grasping the full consequences of how this mechanism would allow the market to balance. They were assuming more decommissioning of coal stations are needed.
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