The impact of these renewables will likely be very low prices when wind is strong and price spikes when gas backup is required to pick up the slack.
It seems likely that coal, wind farms or solar power stations may only receive $20/MWh then when wind stops blowing and for morning and evening (sun down) demand peaks the flexible gas will start up and receive $100/MWh++ You don't capture that aspect with the long term price trends you are looking at Ace.
The outlook for Origin's electricity generation and retail electricity business is strong as long as their fuel contracts are adequate.
The outlook for APLNG is pretty strong once they resolve the reversion issue one way or another, that's a risk.
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