bsl downgrade I just saw UBS has (27 September) downgraded its...

bsl downgrade I just saw UBS has (27 September) downgraded its price target to 6.20 from the previous PT of 6.60. Saw it on egoli.com.au.


BlueScope Steel
(BSL.AX – A$6.55)
Reduce 2 Target:A$6.20
Lowering iron ore and steel price forecasts - Downgrade to Reduce 2

Event: UBS lowering iron ore expectations and steel prices

UBS has lowered 2007 iron ore contract expectations from +10% to -5%, as Chinese domestic iron ore production growth maintains its aggressive pace, giving an increasingly strong hand to the Chinese iron ore buyers. Offsetting this positive impact, are lower steel price forecasts as supply side risks mount both within China and globally.

Action: Downgrade to Reduce 2 on steel pricing concerns

We have lowered our price target from $6.60 to $6.20 reflecting lower FY07E earnings. This results in a downgrade to Reduce 2 from Neutral 2. We expect the stock to continue to trade lower as the deteriorating steel price environment unfolds. A potential positive catalyst for the stock would be news of production cutbacks, however, these would need to be material to prevent any steel price declines.