going up or down..., page-6

OK, time to revisit and review the charting predictions that have used for the last few weeks.
1. The immediate downside target that was suggested 2-3 weeks ago was reached, in a volatile fashion, being significant support at 35.50 which was tested twice and then broken in a very large gap down, closing on its lows. This supports the view that the immediate term downstrend is in place.
2. The primary uptrend which has acted as support over the last few "corrections" is now being tested. 34.50 in the next few days will need to hold, or further downside is likely.
3. June lows lie at 34.00-34.50
4. The 50dsma has well and truly been broken, with the XAO surviving several false breaks of the 200dsma. These may suggest that at least a bottom is in place for the index, but doesn't exclude further downside for BHP. Although this is unlikely, it is possible.
5. The MACD histo is neutral, but the 26/12 reveals the possibility of a short amount of further downside to come.
6. Slow Stochastics are mixed, with a medium term downtrend, but a short term recovery a high possibility.
7. RSI is below the level seen in february before the rebound.

Fundamentally:
A slight recovery in metal prices on friday (copper and lead), with an upgrade of RIO Tinto from citiground on friday, left BHP down in the US (3%), but RIO up (3%).
If RIO recovers, we can expect that BHP should follow suit for the short term at least.
The imminent annual report should provide at least some upside bias, with a good production reports last month likely to reveal higher than expected earnings.
This may allow a re-rating of the forward PE, and possibly further upside.

However, my fundamentals are relatively basic. Any help here would be useful.

Conclusion:
1. Primary uptrend is in place until 34.00-34.50 fails to hold as support.
2. Similar technical signals were found in february and september last year, and provided a good base for a bounce. In september however, the bounce didn't really occur for 1 month after the signals were given.
3. A possible trading strategy could be to go long from tomorrow with a stop at 33.99 or thereabouts.
4. Upside target would be no more than 37.30, and this should be where you take profits. A break of 37.30 should be where you get back in, should the index rally as well.
5. Be wary of false breaks, as a downside false break of 34.50 could be a perfect bear trap. So watch the index for clues.

Any other ideas?