this is from buy sell signals off the bell direct platform.
could be time to take a breather for a couple of days while the day traders try to pee in each others pockets.
Australia Edition Friday, September 13, 2013 www.BuySellSignals.com Download Financials Otto Energy (OEL) Otto Energy keeps rising: up 8.9% in 3 days Otto Energy Limited, Australia's 38th largest energy company by market capitalisation, extended its gains Friday, rising an additional 0.30c (or 3.2%) to close at 9.80c. The shares have jumped 0.80c (or 8.9%) over the past three trading days. Compared with the All Ordinaries Index which rose 15.8 points (or 0.3%) in the three days, this represented a relative price increase of 8.6%
Stock Summary Day's Range 9.60c-10.0c 52-Week Range 6.60c-11.0c Today's Turnover $71,138 Relative Strength 72 Sector Energy Volume 725,900 Volume Index (1 is avg) 0.8 Market Cap $111.7 million Shares Outstanding 1,140,290,071
Introduction We are currently bullish on this stock, both in the short-term based on technical indicators, as well as in the long-term based on fundamental metrics. What makes us most bullish on the stock is the following: Its Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators are rising, with its 12-day higher than its 26-day. • Price/Earnings of 7 versus sector average of 32.2 and market average of 27.2. • The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.15, a bullish indicator. • The Price to Book of 1.3 lower than average of 1.9 for the Energy sector and 2.6 for the Total Australian Market. We estimate the shares are trading at a current year Price to Book of 0.9 and a forward year Price to Book of 0.7. • In the last three months the number of rises outnumbered falls 33:20 or 1.6:1. • Return on Equity of 17.9% versus sector average of 5.6% and market average of 6.8%. • However, there are some reasons why some in the market are more bearish on the stock: Amongst stocks that are shorted, it was in the top quartile as a percentage of stock shorted, suggesting that there are many confident bears of the stock.
Australia Edition Friday, September 13, 2013 www.BuySellSignals.com Analysis Bullish Signals The price is at a premium of 8.9% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of 9.0c. Given that this premium has been under 8.9% two hundred eleven times and over 8.9% thirty-two times in the last year, the downside:upside probability is estimated at 211:32 or 6.6:1. • Volume Weighted Price Rises to Falls: In the last three months the number of rises outnumbered falls 33:20 or 1.6:1. • In the last 20 trading sessions there has been a net rise of 25.64%; the stock has advanced twelve times and the biggest one day rise was 10% on Sep 11. • The price climbed 5.4% in the last week and soared 25.6% in the last month. • Compared with the All Ordinaries Index which rose 1.4% for the week and 1.4% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 4.0% for the week and 24.3% for the month. • In the Australian market of 1,152 stocks and 50 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 72 indicating it has outperformed 72% of the market. • Also, the relative strength percentile is improving at 72 for 6 months, 78 for 3 months and 86 for 1 month. • The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.1, 14 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 8.80c. An increase is another bullish indicator. • The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.09 minus the 26-day EMA of 0.09 is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal. • The Price/MAP of 1.15 for OEL is higher than the Price/MAP for the All Ordinaries Index of 1.0
The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.15, a bullish indicator. The 50-day MAP of 9.92c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 8.51c, another bullish indicator. • ***********************************************************
Undervaluation: Price/Earnings of 7 versus sector average of 32.2 and market average of 27.2. • The earnings yield of 14.2% is 4.6 times the 10-year bond yield of 3.08%. • The Price to Book of 1.3 lower than average of 1.9 for the Energy sector and 2.6 for the Total Australian Market. We estimate the shares are trading at a current year Price to Book of 0.9 and a forward year Price to Book of 0.7. • The P/E of 7 multiplied by the P/NTA of 1.3 is 8.9. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued. • The company is cash rich with Cash to Market Capitalisation at 27.2%. • The Q Ratio, defined by James Tobin as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 1. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.
**********************take a breath*********************** • Other Bullish Signals: Return on Equity of 17.9% versus sector average of 5.6% and market average of 6.8%. • Return on Assets of 13.8% versus sector average of 3.2% and market average of 1.3%. • As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity of 17.9% is better than sector average of 5.6%. This is computed as net profit margin of 44.0% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.31 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.3. • Also, the following criteria set by Benjamin Graham: "An earnings-to-price yield of at least twice the triple-A bond"; the stock's earning yield of 14.2% is 4.6 times the triple-A bond yield of 3.1%. • "Current ratio of two or more"; current assets are 6.6 times current liabilities.
************************grab a coffee********************
Analysis (continued) Description Value Rank In Market Return on Assets [ROA] % 13.8 In Top Quartile Net Profit Margin % 44.0 In Top Quartile Price/MAP200 1.15 In Top Quartile Price Change % 3.2 In Top Quartile Cash to MCap % 27.2 In Top Quartile Price Earnings 7 In Top Quartile Return on Equity [ROE] % 17.9 In Top Quartile P/E * P/NTA 8.87 In Top Quartile PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDICES AND SECTORS: The stock is in 3 indices and 2 sectors. The stock's rise went against the trend set by the following index and sectors: The Total Australian Market of 1152 stocks and 50 units traded today, which was down 30.8 points or 0.6% to 5,353. All Ordinaries Index of 422 stocks and 28 units traded today, which was down 23.5 points or 0.4% to 5,215. Energy sector of 157 stocks traded today, which was down 22.5 points or 0.4% to 5,619.
All Ordinaries Index ............39.........49 ........64
Volume and turnover period There were 725,900 shares worth $71,138 traded. The volume was 0.8 times average trading of 895,192 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 19.6% (or a turnover period of 5 years 37 days). This average length of ownership of the stock at 2.1 times the average holding period of 2 years 5 months for stocks in the All Ordinaries Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.
it sometimes happens that the traders who take short positions find that market movers move the market against them starting a rush to cover their arses which drives the price up triggering their stoplosses,starting a rush to cover their arses.
sideways consolidation in the 0.96 / 0.10 for a few days on higher volume followed by a move up would be preferable to a mad exponential break upwards imo.
the drilling is all over bar the shouting and management have a very good idea of the overall picture, i assume we will be given the information in a conservative trickle down fashion. that won't bother most of the long termers as the shortage of supply is probably due to many of them sitting on their hands and staying well away from the chatter and the sell button.
next week could be very interesting more than a few people will be holding their breath on wed. then again it could be the same old 5 liner annc. TD achieved/liners being placed/ clean out commenced/ assembly started/ as per pre drill prognosis. they keep a tight rein on good news, but bad news has it's own momentum and usually leaks out with volume showing the way, so im happy enough with the 5 liners for now. i would be even happier with a G-5H - 500m high grade zone/ better than pre drill prognosis 5 line annc.
have a good weekend good luck to all
macgee dyor
OEL Price at posting:
9.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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