gokf us open bettingzone info

Its long but its a major....I remember watching David Graham win here. The pins have wicker baskets for flags, weird you wait till you see them.


Pick six in Merion minefield
By: Ben ColeyLast Updated: June 10 2013, 21:31 BST
Ben Coley previews the US Open and is backing two nearly-men to content at Merion Golf Club in Pennsylvania.



Merion Golf Club hosts the US Open this week and it's an event players and fans have looked forward to for some time.

The East Course, opened in 1912, is regarded as one of the finest classical tests in America if not the world. Holes vary from the tiny par-three 13th to the brutal par-five fourth, with one driveable par-four only a few yards longer than three monster par-threes.

1.5pt e.w. Dustin Johnson at 50/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - regular major contender who looks overpriced
1.5pts e.w. Sergio Garcia at 40/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - fine US Open record and arguably playing his best golf
1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 150/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - played well in the event as an amateur and a star of the future
1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 70/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - excelled here in the Walker Cup and will relish a return
1pt e.w. Ryan Moore at 125/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - struck it superbly last time and loves a classical test
1pt e.w. Kyle Stanley at 150/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - superb form to make field and overpriced on that




It really should be an all-round test of golf and that's always the aim of a US Open. Par should be a good score and while the length of this course won't defend it, thick, multi-layered rough, narrow targets and typically fast greens will demand precision and patience.

However, if there's one thing that can come to the rescue of players in a US Open it's the weather, and a recent deluge in Pennsylvania has dramatically changed the picture at Merion.

Although fanciful to suggest that sodden fairways will allow the big-hitting stars of modern golf to take apart this traditional layout, where par might've won this championship during a dry spell, it certainly won't if the course remains soft.

We've been here before. Just two years ago, Rory McIlroy tore apart a rain-soaked Congressional to romp to a first major title while in 2009, Lucas Glover was a shock winner at Bethpage Black in a week where the draw played a huge part in the outcome.

Of course, McIlroy's success was largely down to exemplary golf but 20 players breaking par was not what officials had in mind. A similar outcome at Merion isn't impossible and what seems certain is that the advantage which looked to be held by short, straight players who scramble well has been negated to some extent.

In truth, it's impossible for me to tell you with absolute certainty what type of player will flourish this week. Last year, Olympic Club was dominated by the aforementioned steady players, but most US Opens over the last decade have featured a heavy proportion of big-hitters and that would appear likely here.

Ultimately I feel like this is a week for instinct as we have so few angles to exploit. Course form comes in the shape of the 2005 US Amateur, won by Edoardo Molinari who isn't in this field, and the 2009 Walker Cup where Rickie Fowler starred.

One thing I will lean on is the fact that, increasingly, majors are being won by a new face. Thirteen of the last 16 major champions were winning one for the first time and if we narrow down to the events on US soil, names are pretty fresh: Rory McIlroy (twice), Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Adam Scott, Graeme McDowell and Charl Schwartzel are all top-class golfers but somewhat remarkably at the time of winning, 32-year-old Scott is the senior man.

So while Tiger Woods deserves respect and so too does Phil Mickelson, I think the time is right to rely on the younger crop of players and, ideally, those with experience of playing well in majors. All of those mentioned had either played well at a previous major or have done so subsequently, so if we're looking outside the upper echelon of tour professionals we should focus on those who've shown glimpses at this level.

As you may have guessed, it's hard to be really confident this week but I feel certain in my own mind that all six outright selections offer value, starting with Dustin Johnson.

Here we have a man who could very well have three majors in the bag already. First, he forfeited a three-shot lead in the 2010 US Open at Pebble Beach. Then, he fell foul of an extremely unfortunate local rule in the same year's PGA Championship at Whistling Straits. Finally, in 2011 he held every chance in the Open Championship with five holes left.

There are of course various reasons for the fact he failed to win any of these, some more concerning than others. He's far from the first player to suffer under the pressure of holding the 54-hole lead in a major, and the hope is next time he does he'll cope better than at Pebble Beach.

Whistling Straits was a combination of pressure, naivety, a lack of assistance from his caddy and misfortune, but the way he played the last five holes there suggests he did indeed learn a lot from what happened earlier in the season in this event.

As for the Open, he simply paid the price for going after birdies on a very tough course in pursuit of a links specialist who had everything go his way. It happens.

Clearly, I'm not in the camp that says Dustin Johnson doesn't have what it takes to win a major. To be frank it's always a dangerous stance to take and there were many left ruing their decision to write off Adam Scott earlier this season. I really do believe that for the majority of players, it's necessary to take lessons from near-misses before the door eventually swings open and I'm hopeful that's the case with Johnson.

Why this week, then? Well, for starters he strikes me as outstanding value relative to those at the head of the market. Of those above him yet to win majors, only really Lee Westwood has gone close as often as Johnson and that in a career more than twice as long. The likes of Luke Donald and Justin Rose may have the odd top-10 here and there but scarcely have they been truly involved in the battle for the title.

Secondly, the rain that's arrived might just be perfect for Johnson. Ranking second on tour for driving distance, Dustin will be able to take whatever club he wants off most tees here and he's more than capable of finding rain-softened fairways regularly with his long irons. His PGA Tour CV, which includes two wins at Pebble Beach, is littered with evidence to suggest softened courses suit and he's not adverse to a battle with the elements, either.

DJ produced a timely return to form at TPC Southwind last week, a tough, technical layout and one he won on last year, with a share of 10th a lovely way to prepare for this event. Crucially, it confirmed that he's fit again and if that's the case I simply don't think he should be going off at 50/1 in a major championship in the forecast conditions.

Should Johnson miss the odd fairway, which is clearly inevitable, he more than most has the strength to advance the ball from this thick, soggy rough. If reports are correct, some of the less athletic players in this field may have to come out sideways from bad lies but that shouldn't be a problem for Johnson, who ranks seventh on tour in greens in regulation from lies other than the fairway.

Some question his mental game and how suitable a US Open set-up will be, but this is a guy who is second in the PGA Tour's bounce-back stat and I think he has what it takes to win more than one major, hopefully starting this week.

Leading the bounce-back statistic is Sergio Garcia and he's the other I like from near the head of the betting.

I know what you're thinking and it's something along the lines of 'Sergio doesn't have what it takes to win a major', but again I think it's far too easy and certainly too dangerous to leap to such assumptions. Yes, he's spurned chances in the Open and the PGA Championship in the past, but that doesn't mean his chance of winning a major has gone for good.

I'm not going to argue that Garcia is among the stronger players from a mental perspective, but he has the ability to win any event and if he keeps playing the way he has for the best part of a year, I believe the chances will come thick and fast.

Garcia hasn't finished outside the top-25 of an event he's completed since missing the cut in last year's PGA Championship, a run of 18 tournaments. His only failure to do so came when he was forced to withdraw due to injury at Bay Hill.

That's a quite remarkable stretch of golf and it's the result of a dramatically improved short game. Garcia currently sits second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting and, perhaps crucially here, is first in scrambling from the rough.

His putting stats have been quite outstanding for a year now and the old perception of Garcia as unreliable on the greens is out of date. His putting from range is particularly good and that might pave the way for one or two bonus birdies this week.

Garcia also ranks sixth in par-four performance, always a key pointer on a technical par 70 like Merion, and his last PGA Tour win came at a rain-softened Sedgefield Country Club late last year.

His US Open record is very strong, too. Garcia has played the event 13 times across a variety of courses and has twice finished in the frame, with a further five top-20 finishes to boot. The need to strike the ball well is always prevalent at a US Open so it's really no surprise that he's flourished.

There is one other factor which I believe could be pivotal this week. Garcia's tasteless comments with regards Tiger Woods at Wentworth in May threw him into the spotlight for all the wrong reasons, and for once I thought he looked ashamed of himself, humbled, and perhaps keen to just get his head down and play golf.

If that's the case then maybe he can finally get over the line in a major. He's seen a player with a very similar profile do it earlier this year and, in arguably the form of his life, now is the time.

I'm really taken by some of the current crop of US youngsters and none more so than Russell Henley, who is surely overpriced here.

The Georgia Bulldog got off to a perfect start in his first PGA Tour event as a full member, winning the Sony Open in Hawaii on a course that has typically favoured those with experience.

Despite securing his playing rights for 2014 at the first available opportunity, he hasn't relented. Henley has added sixth-placed finishes at Harbour Town and Memorial to advertise the versatility in his game and again caught the eye last week, closing with a round of 66 for 27th in Memphis - only one player in the field bettered that score on Sunday.

A superb driver of the ball who ranks inside the top-10 on tour for strokes gained putting, there appear no weaknesses in the Henley game and that's backed up by a ranking of ninth in the all-around - as mentioned last week, the names in front of him are impressive and include Tiger Woods, Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy.

To an extent I'm guessing as to how Henley will take to Merion, but he finished 16th as an amateur in the 2010 US Open before finishing 42nd a year later. Two US Open appearances as an amateur, two impressive displays, and since then he's turned professional and won four tournaments.

With that in mind I see no reason why he shouldn't relish this opportunity and everything I've seen of him suggests he has what it takes to contend and to win.

If he happened to need any extra inspiration, Henley's close friend and college team-mate Harris English won in Memphis on Sunday and this Georgia Bulldog looks far too big at 150/1.

I really wanted to get Kevin Chappell into the staking plan but with all the 100/1 just about gone I have to pass. The case for him is strong - he has finished of third and 10th from just two US Open starts and was an impressive second last time - but he's yet to win on tour and doing so here is probably asking a little too much.

So I'll complete the outright staking plan with three more Americans who could go very well this week.

First up is Rickie Fowler, about whom confidence would've been considerably higher had this tournament taken place two months ago.

In truth, there has to be a real concern that Fowler isn't firing on all cylinders but as a player who regards himself among the world's best, maybe he's been gearing up to this event.

That certainly should be the case, as he'll be among those most looking forward to a US Open at Merion. Fowler was the undoubted star of the 2009 Walker Cup here, winning all four of his matches, and although this is a higher level that experience of the layout must surely count for something.

Fowler has already impressed in the Open Championship and it's only a matter of time before he produces the goods in his home Open too. He has the game for a classical test like this when on-song and at his best would be a huge contender.

With bogey avoidance and par-four stats suggesting his game isn't too far away from the level required to contend, I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt given that no player in this field has shown such a clear liking for Merion.

Another pointer towards the prospects of Fowler is his victory in the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow last year. Although a par 72, that venue has proved to be a superb form guide for US Opens for one reason or another. My best guess is that the greens tend to roll fast and are severely undulating, while it's important to scramble well and shape the ball both ways from the tee.

Whatever the truth, Lucas Glover, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk and Rory McIlroy have won both events, a potentially key pointer given that the Wells Fargo has only been going for a decade.

Indeed, 2007 US Open winner Angel Cabrera has also gone close at Quail Hollow, as has last year's champion Webb Simpson, and another two from this year's edition catch my eye.

First up is Ryan Moore, who led the field in driving accuracy and ranked eighth in scrambling on his way to 13th in the Memorial Tournament last time out.

Moore finished sixth at Quail Hollow earlier this season and fifth a year earlier, further advertising his love for a classical test like that which we should expect at Merion.

A former US Amateur winner, there's time yet for Moore to fulfill his undoubted potential and that eye-catching effort last time provides a perfect platform for a run here.

Moore has some form in Pennsylvania to call upon courtesy of a second-placed finish in the AT&T National in 2010, he was 10th in the US Open at a rain-soaked Bethpage a year earlier and at the price he's worth a small bet.

Lastly, Kyle Stanley makes his way into the staking plan.

A supremely talented player who I hold in very high regard, it's been great to see Stanley return to form this spring with a trio of top-six finishes from his last six events including sixth at Quail Hollow.

Last time out he was third at Muirfield Village, ranking third in the all-around, and it was that effort which squeezed him into this field via the Official World Golf Rankings.

Stanley hasn't done a great deal in majors yet but he's definitely got the game for it and the softened track may play to his strengths.

Preview posted at 1750 BST on 10/06/2013.



http://www.sportinglife.com/bettingzone/golf/67/8769390/pick-six-in-merion-minefield