timber: "The $800 billion of maturing US government debt will be funded, whether the US Treasury can sell its bonds or not."
by the FED not repurchasing, this causes a tightening event; more violent than a token 0.25% rate rise; so from now onwards to 2018, we will have quite the tightening phase from the FED; the outcome, I guess, the 'market' will buy the $800 billion, or the US govt will beginning running surpluses; the problem is both outcomes are unlikely; but there must be SOME outcome
perhaps the US will offer 4 or 5% on the the new, replacement bonds.... making all current bond holders instantly lose 50% on their holdings... OR we will have Belgium take over the mantel as the biggest economy on the earth.... because they will happily buy all the bonds they can at under 2%, keeping the US functioning and keeping the current bond market intact... the Chinese must be very happy to have Belgium end up holding the bag; Belgium, it seems is the FEDs FED
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