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05/03/16
13:37
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Originally posted by AverageJoe
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NFP can throw up random correlations as traders adjust to the news. Somehow this time I don't buy the rate hike is bad for stock markets anymore. The emphasis seems to be focused on oil price. Early this week I posted that I thought from the price action oil would eventually burst $34.50 and NFP seems to be that trigger. This triggered risk buying hence stock indices continued up. This is what I see. Gold I thought did pretty well under the circumstance. The move came pre-NFP as it rallied off the resistance. I didn't want to form any solid opinion because I know the random nature of each NFP that surprised.
Technically the gold daily candle is bearish just like oil early this week. This could also be factored post NFP profit taking together with end of week stuffs. Next week we will see what trader thinks. I am inkling towards the bullish momentum sustaining. Any price drops will dip into a choppy triangle range so this would put me off shorting beside scalpers.
I'll probably guess that those who took mechanical direction from NFP and shorted post news with assumptions probably got stopped out unless they were scalping. I stopped playing this strategy especially major news time. Last night was super choppy. Suspect the results were a little surprising from employment change but not big enough and hourly worked was not so good.
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Joe - My sig used the be "Forget the Fed, Oil is the new Black". (Clever, heh?) And it was, as oil went, equities went. It became common parlance, convention wisdom (of which I am critical), bit it was right..... I'm less sure now. I don't know. I'll think about it.
Clearly you're saying its still valid??? Ye? No? I note WTI rose 5% to $36.33
S&P 500 - up 0.33%.
A disconnect here...