As POG has and will have a significant impact on the share price...

As POG has and will have a significant impact on the share price performance of SPR and all other gold stocks I thought it was worth starting a new thread. Macro economic issues and geopolitics will have a major impact on the POG so the threat aims to catch those issues.

The US budget deficit has recently been projected to be a bit over $1.9Tr up from $1.4tr a few months ago and would have been $2tr but for timing issues with some payments. this is 7% of GDP - the IMF estimate is 7.1% (rest of developed nations are 2%) and is quite critical of the inability of the US to address its deficit position. (https://www.ft.com/content/134cc7f3-f2df-43c9-b1b1-e58e6363781a).

I just noticed the chart below on USA Fed government interest payments on its debt - Q1 24- $1tr, projected to increase in Q1 25 assuming a reduction of 1.5% in interest rates, to $1.2tr or at current interest rates ie no change - Q1 25 - $1.7tr. Revenue is only circa $4.5tr maybe a bit more so project deficit is roughly like 25% to 35% of revenue - ouch that is seriously big . While the figures are from what looks like a reliable source I have not validated the projected figures (note they are not from the government - I find the government always under estimates the deficit in US).

If the Fed does not cuts interest the US debt is going to kill the budget and cause huge financial problems for the US and the rest of the world, crowd out borrowing by the private sector and increase interest rates. I cannot see this being negative for POG.

There are lots of issues bubbling away and a number of cracks developing in the background in the US and other countries that could lead to a crisis
- if they cracked it probably be significantly beneficial to the POG but with a likely short term significant dip in the POG before it moved a lot higher.

Will post details on some of these issues in subsequent posts - having been doing a lot of research on the macro picture as it has a major impact on POG - its all positive but will be volatile, even if interest rates head higher and the US dollar stays strong.

Based on my research of the macro issues I am very bullish for POG over the next 5 or so years and gold stocks are just a leveraged way of taking advantage of the POG increases.