If there is a recession in the US then we will probably see the deficit top $3tr next year from the 23/24 current estimate of $1.9tr which may end up over $2tr. I was listening to a podcast last night and one guest suggested it would go to $3.5tr to $4tr which is possible. And that is just one year - the impact of a recession would result in a few years of very high deficits such that the cumulative deficit could easily get to $10tr over a few years. That would result in the US government debt rising to over $45tr which would be circa 150% of GDP maybe higher.
A 10% fall in revenues and a 10% increase in outlays increases the deficit to over $3b while a 20% change in creases the deficit to over $4tr - both a possible scenarios.
What would happen to the POG? It’s not a question of whether it would go up but how high it would rise!
Could the US be heading for a sovereign debt crisis? If it does POG will go bonkers.
SPR Price at posting:
$1.11 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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