If there is a recession in the US then we will probably see the deficit top $3tr next year from the 23/24 current estimate of $1.9tr which may end up over $2tr. I was listening to a podcast last night and one guest suggested it would go to $3.5tr to $4tr which is possible. And that is just one year - the impact of a recession would result in a few years of very high deficits such that the cumulative deficit could easily get to $10tr over a few years. That would result in the US government debt rising to over $45tr which would be circa 150% of GDP maybe higher.
A 10% fall in revenues and a 10% increase in outlays increases the deficit to over $3b while a 20% change in creases the deficit to over $4tr - both a possible scenarios.
What would happen to the POG? It’s not a question of whether it would go up but how high it would rise!
Could the US be heading for a sovereign debt crisis? If it does POG will go bonkers.
If there is a recession in the US then we will probably see the...
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Last
$1.28 |
Change
-0.020(1.54%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.416B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.31 | $1.32 | $1.28 | $4.141M | 3.191M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 196514 | $1.28 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.30 | 33512 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 10/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| SPR (ASX) Chart |