LOL China stipulating a precondition for tariff negotiations- RESPECT. That's likely to be a stumbling block. Seems to be in short supply.

18 hours ago-
China Foreign Ministry’s Lin: China Vows Firm Response To US Tariffs
- Lin Avoids Giving Specifics On Response Details
- If The US Wants To Talk, It Should Show Respect



9:45 A.M. TRUMP:

RIGHT NOW CHINA IS PAYING A 104% TARIFF

FED'S GOOLSBEE: TARIFFS ARE MUCH MORE THAN WHAT WE HAD BEEN MODELING-- ILLINOIS PUBLIC RADIO INTERVIEW FED HAS TO TAKE THE LONGER VIEW, NOT LIKE THE STOCK MARKET, WHICH IS VOLATILEDISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY OR HOW MUCH TARIFF INCREASE WILL GET PASSED TO CONSUMERS COULD LEAD TO BANKRUPTCIES OF SUPPLIERS

Trump tariffs ‘will increase the unemployment rate to recessionary levels,’ says economist

From cnbc.com

“If the president does not reverse course, he will increase the unemployment rate to recessionary levels,” says , director of economic policy studies at the conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute and professor at Georgetown University.

Here’s what experts predict.

Unemployment rate could hit 4.7% by the end of 2025

More than a third, 37%, of CEOs said they expect to cut jobs this year, according to , which includes more than 100 CEOs in various industries. Some companies have already started layoffs: Car manufacturer Stellantis announced April 3 it was temporarily as a result of the president’s tariffs.

The industries that will likely see the most immediate job cuts are “retail trade, wholesale trade and manufacturing,” says director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University. Agriculture jobs may be similarly affected, says , senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and professor of public policy at Georgetown University.

Companies whose products are entirely made in the U.S. could benefit: “At least in the short term, employment would likely rise there, because those folks will see more demand,” says Holzer. That could mean cumulative hikes of tens of thousands or even a few hundred thousand jobs added in the next three or four months, he says.

But virtually “nothing is 100% made in the U.S.A. anymore,” says , senior economist at the pro-union Economic Policy Institute. “About 45% of the content of U.S.A. goods is from imports.” About half, 52%, of what Americans purchased in 2023 was “made in America,” according to the .

Job losses will far outweigh gains, experts agree.

The Budget Lab at Yale calculated that Trump’s tariffs will cut 2025 U.S. GDP growth by a percentage point. That could mean the unemployment rate goes up from its current 4.2% to 4.7% by the end of the year, says Tedeschi. That represents “roughly half a million people,” he says.

The rise in unemployment could be even higher, according to Holzer’s loose calculations: Job losses “could be in the millions,” he says.

In the long run, Tedeschi predicts another “200,000 to 300,000” fewer people in the labor market every year as a result of Trump’s tariffs. That’s before calculating the impact of the retaliatory tariffs economists believe other countries will place on U.S. products. “That’s going to have big direct employment effects” as well, says Hersh.

Uncertainty about future policy changes could cause businesses to cut both roles in the near term and create fewer jobs down the line. “It’s not just the substance of the tariffs that is so damaging,” says Tedeschi. “It’s the chaotic way in which they’ve been rolled out.”

That’s because, “when you don’t know what the tariff rate is going to be an hour from now, let alone a week from now or a month from now or a year from now, how can you as a business hire and invest in that environment?” says Tedeschi.

Overall, when it comes to the tariffs and their impact on the U.S. job market, “it’s pretty easy to see the negatives outweigh the positives,” says Holzer. The White House has not responded to a request for comment.

2:14 AM · Apr 9, 2025

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