I find the chart below interesting but not for the reasons highlighted in the commentary. What is very noticeable, aside from the brief sharemarket downturn in 2008 and a few later years, the CAPE ratio has been highly elevated during the last 25+ years - it’s level during this period has been at historic highs except for 1929 and the fall in 2008 - why one must ask - historically low interest rates is one explanation- if my explanation is right and interest rates do not go down significantly will the sharemarket, especially the US, fall significantly?
If interest rates actually go higher over the next 5-10 years and longer surely the sharemarket will fall a lot. If 2021 marked the start of a long period of higher interest rates vs the decline in interest rates for the 40 years from 1980, does one really believe that the sharemarket will perform well? History seems to indicate the reverse as illustrated by the period from the late 1960’s to 1980.
In these scenarios what will happen to the POG?
Gold and macro environment, page-159
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Last
$1.53 |
Change
-0.060(3.77%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.702B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.57 | $1.57 | $1.53 | $3.165M | 2.049M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20000 | $1.53 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.55 | 29228 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 01/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| SPR (ASX) Chart |