My base case is there will be a US recession.
Since WW2 every time the Fed has cut rates there has been a subsequent recession except in 3 cases - in those 3 cases (mid 60s, mid 80s and mid 90s) the yield curve did NOT invert as it did in each of the cases when there was a recession. In addition in those 3 cases unemployment was going down before the Fed cut while in all other unemployment was going up before the Fed cut rates.
We have had one of the strongest inverted yield curves since WW2 and a significant increase in unemployment while the Fed has not yet cut rates. History suggests we will see a US recession and if we do not this will be the first time since WW2.
My base case is there will be a US recession. Since WW2 every...
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