Gold and macro environment, page-253

FWIW


Full story in the spoiler although only this  from Macquarie from a ‘quarterly update’;

New research from Macquarie suggests there is “structural strength” in gold, but that it could be approaching a cyclical peak in early 2025.

“While the backdrop of challenged developed market fiscal outlooks remains structurally positive for gold, a lot is arguably already in the price, with the potential for cyclical headwinds to emerge later next year,” the bank’s commodities desk said in a quarterly update.

Spoiler : See report here

https://thewest.com.au/business/gol...-as-yellow-metal-hits-another-high-c-16034682

Chief of gold mining behemoth Newmont making the most of rolling gold rush as yellow metal hits another high

Simone GroganThe West Australian
Fri, 13 September 2024 2:41PM


Newmont chief executive officer Tom Palmer. Credit: Justin Benson-Cooper/The Sunday Times

The Australian-born chief executive of $90 billion global mining giant Newmont is riding high on the back of transcendent gold prices, but isn’t letting the latest rush go to his head.

Gold miners have been relishing in the commodity’s latest bull run which has seen the US spot price of a troy ounce of gold lift nearly 24 per cent since the start of 2024.
On Thursday night, gold hit another record of $US2570.10 ($3821.10) amid market anticipation of a long-awaited interest rate cut in the US.

Tom Palmer, who runs the world’s biggest gold miner Newmont from its headquarters in Denver, says central bank moves to load up on the safe-haven asset amid rampant inflation has been a big contributing factor to the latest rush.
“The gold price has been driven by structural elements, the US dollar, interest rates, inflation, and then you’re seeing a secondary component start to emerge in terms of central bank buying of gold,” he said.

But after 35 years working in mining, the chief executive is conscious that inflation-driven gold prices also come with a catch.
“The issue for the gold industry, gold mining companies, is the driver of gold price — inflation being one of the key structural elements — also increases the cost of producing gold,” he said.
“I’ve spent more time with metal prices at the bottom of their cycle than the top.
“So we’re very much focused on controlling what we can control, and keeping our costs and productivities at a level that ensures wherever the gold price is at, we can be generating good returns.”

Mr Palmer wouldn’t be drawn to share his views on how the outcome of the upcoming US election between nominees Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in November could impact the gold price — often boosted by geopolitical uncertainty.

New research from Macquarie suggests there is “structural strength” in gold, but that it could be approaching a cyclical peak in early 2025.
“While the backdrop of challenged developed market fiscal outlooks remains structurally positive for gold, a lot is arguably already in the price, with the potential for cyclical headwinds to emerge later next year,” the bank’s commodities desk said in a quarterly update.

Newmont produced 5.5 million ounces of gold in 2023 spurred by output from the biggest gold mine in Australia, Boddington. The company earlier this week offloaded its ageing Telfer gold mine in the Pilbara, and the majority of promising Havieron discovery, to up-and-coming WA-based developer Greatland Gold for $714 million.
The sale forms part of Newmont’s broader bid to stick with “tier-one” assets, after cementing its place as the world’s gold mining giant when it acquired Newcrest Mining in a $26b takeover in 2023.
Part of the deal also saw Newmont take on a suite of copper assets, which Mr Palmer believes have a “really important future in the energy transition”.
“Between now and 2050 the world is going to have to produce as much copper as it’s produced since the dawn of time. So the demand for copper is significant,” he said.
“Increasing exposure to copper was a natural product of our strategy.”