You always have to be a little suspicious when you see trading like we had yesterday because it's
not normally the way a typical seller will dispose of their shares. It's more akin to a distressed seller that has to get out at any cost, happy to drive the price down as far as it can go, as long as they get out. Sometimes you will see that sort of action in a Capital Raise, when the issue price has been leaked and the unscrupulous ones attempt to extract some short term arbitrage.
Any bona fide seller, under normal conditions, wants to get out at the highest price possible, selling in waves and allowing the price to somewhat recover before selling the next lot of shares. For the more sophisticated investor/trader, you'll see the bots actively engaged to recover the price in between the sells. I didn't see this yesterday. What I saw is a share price driven down mercilessly, ending the day predictably near the lows. If this was the motive of the Banksters, then they did a great job. If the price fell for fundamental reasons, none have been revealed thus far.
A capital raise seems unlikely, and Simon is on record stating that they will wait for the feasibility studies before deciding how much finance will be needed for the restart and how the deal will be structured. At 30 June, SPR had $93million in the bank. If the sell-off has occurred due to a capital raise, or something more detrimental, then clearly we have
insider trading, and I will happily report to ASIC, who will do nothing about it
!!!
There could be other reasons for the sell-off. Perhaps one of the cornerstone investors has had a hissy fit, not happy with the direction of the company. Alternatively, a global fund manager could be selling down across many similar holdings if they expect the POG to take a dive in the near term. I will note here that the markets are now expecting a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting. Senators have written to Powell asking for a 75 basis point cut in the face of a deteriorating labour market. If something like this (75 point cut) were to occur (doubtful) it would likely cause extreme panic in the markets and we wouldn't be spared.
Just as a final point, if we are to be taken over, then the share price does need to fall, imo. I have seen this occur many times leading into a takeover offer, especially when the share price has run up quickly prior to that offer. It was certainly the case in relation to AZS, they even managed to conduct a capital raise just prior to takeover. And, I will never forget a company I held called Uniti Group which had reported stellar financials and advised the market that some entity was interested in buying them out but was still in the due diligence phase. The share price was still magically hammered down from something like $4.20 to low $3s, the initial offer came in at $4.50, later raised a little more from memory. For Spartan, I don't think the share price can be driven much lower than $1.20 without a capitulation in the POG, especially given the recent discovery of Pepper, and how big it actually is. From around $1.20, an offer with a 50% premium could be had at $1.80, which was speculated recently in an article in Mining News journal.
The strategy for me, as normal, is to force myself to buy when the price is low, which is at close yesterday, and to sell a parcel after a run up, especially given I'm over-exposed here.
These are my opinions only, and I could well be totally wrong.
Good luck to all.
(20min delay)