I found this very insightful piece of research on POG forecasts...

I found this very insightful piece of research on POG forecasts (https://www.rfcambrian.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O-20241114-Alchemist-Issue-43.pdf ). I have written past posts being highly critical of forecast POG by most analysts and this detailed analysis supports my view 100%! The chart from the research below) clearly demonstrates that in the last 6 years forecast POG by experts)experts really!) have been not just been a little out but substantially under estimating future POG. Almost all forecasts assume a falling POG despite POG increasing by about 10 fold since 2000 and doubling since 2018.

None of the forecasters has any credibility and the article nicely sums that up by stating "while Dr Strange and the Avengers may be better at predicting the future than the gold price forecasters, the recent surge in gold prices has likely drawn more attention to the gold market than to the latest superhero movie."

They go onto to state "This shortcoming is potentially especially impactful given the wide use of consensus forecasts in both public and private sectors, and the influence that it has on decision making." The very poor forecasting of the POG is a key reason why gold producers are very undervalued and even more under valued for developers and explorers, why it makes hedging a stupid decision, makes it difficult for companies to raise capital, etc etc. As for analysts from brokers value of gold stocks, well, they are simply a joke and have no credibility, not be worth the paper they are written on.