Re China I would lean towards dead cat but only because tariffs are going to hurt them more than others due to export weighting. Of course they can (and likely will) devalue the Yuan in attempts to nullifying impact, but in the end I don't think the TW will be helpful IMO and I don't think the pull back is over done - but I'm certainly no expert.
Just to bring this back on topic a bit, I've heard some good arguments that a TW will produce a wider run to the USD as safety and that may well be true. Picking a low in gold with that backdrop could be tricky, but below ~1220 breaks long term diagonal support and brings lower numbers into play. All depends what the commercials want to do with the paper market of course, and COT suggest we are nearing the end of current sell off based on com/spec positions, but numbers not extreme as yet.
If 63 goes look out below
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Gold at AU$44,000/oz, page-182
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