gold backwardation (gofo) goes mainstream, page-2

Dub

This article doesn't make sense.

Firstly, I don't see any evidence of material "backwardation" in Comex Gold in the pricing data.

See spot price: $1311 (at time of writing)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

See August Comex Gold prices: $1310.50 (at time of writing)
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html

Secondly, if I thought that there was going to be a squeeze on physical supply going into the settlement of August Comex Gold, I would expect a pronounced contango as the shorts pushed the price up looking to cover.

The current pricing suggests that longs aren't all that keen on taking delivery.

For the most part, the two markets are locked together in much that same way as they always have been, and the fantasy that Spot and Futures will somehow disconnect remains fanciful.

The most sensible comment in the article comes from the Soc Gen analyst "(in April) a bullion bank may have overcommitted in the physical market". I think that is something of an understatement and the bullion banks collectively were limit long physical.

Cheers