I start off with the weekly view on the 1st chart. Those weekly red candles were very reflective to the Spec short positioning to a record volume. Momentum favors the bears. $1158 was where I thought price could reach but prepared to wait it out to see if the bears could have the firepower to slam through into that $1122 swing low. Fast forward 2 weeks and with that daily pin bar-ish reversal, $1200 was where I thought could pose resistance. It did temporarily and I took a short, stopped out breakeven on the way down and reversed. I attempted again on Monday and am aware of the $1200 so when it broke last night, I dropped the trail stop down and got taken out almost immediately as it recovered.
The daily chart is just displaying what I think is a trend channel short term with 3 days of stabbing through $1200 without success, NY is still to show its hands tonight. IMO if $1200 holds into the close today, we have more evidence of a reversal and if price continues to test those resistance from here on, short covering from those all time high volume will come into play.
Weekly 2 bar reversal is coming into play but that will take time. Interesting to note that RSI as it was ranging at the top was showing it whipsawing around the neutral level (50) until April 11 when it decided to take out the double top and we see after the event the triple top. From there on as price threatened $1300, RSI was already indicating it bearish implications as that 50 level had broken way before this psy level was tested. Currently is the first opportunity for RSI to revert back to the neutral line and seemingly 'hug' it implying it could break it to the upside??
Subject to that $1160 holding, I am seeing the signs of a reversal off a low level and from a weekly perspective, the third higher low has established.
XAUAUD is still showing signs of the uptrend intact with the consistent higher lows. The gold stock sector is still suffering from negative sentiment past few weeks bt the major goldies all preserved valuation very well. If I were to read the relationship with DXY then it complicates things since it is a direct negative correlation so far.
The technicals are there for gold to reverse. How will the USD react to that bull run in US stockmarket?
