G'day Gazman. Check out The Sparkler's post of last night with the numbers over the last couple of weeks. I think that he has hit it on the head there as to why the SP droped as it has, but, next few days will confirm that, or otherwise.
Most of us who have posted on that situation share the view that most of the buying that took the SP from 19 to 30 was done by opportunistic ST people who remembered last April and were hoping to get in early before the GSA ann and then sell out immediately on the spike that they anticipated.
But, by calling the TH, this cost the T-3 people a valuable day and when the spike did not occur, because the ann was highly anticipated, they just had to sell ASAP, for whatever they could get to pay for their buys, otherwise, they would have had to use their own money. Can't have that can we?
The issues that you raise are all very valid, but, seripusly, do not underestimate the management and members of our Board. Extremely experienced people in their fields, are VERY well known to "those that will matter in the industry" over the next few months and I have every confidence that they are all on personal talking terms with all the "right" people. In fact, I reckon that a large part of those concerns that you raised have been being addressed for many months already and certainly not starting from scratch now. Am sure that they were very confident of getting the GSA (certainly not over confident as there were many factors over which they had no control) and have been planning for many months.
I also reckon that people should not under estimate 626. It has been "disappointing" but, RJ admits that the wrong equipment had been used previously and we are starting this drilling programme "the most vigorous in the company's history" with brand new engineering and don't forget, completely new and far more detailed seismics. And 626 doesn't have to have too many successful hits to turn it into a full 2P field. 626 alone could provide a large portion of that 2.2TCF.
So, I am now very comfortable to sit back, buy a few more shares (I have a VERY modest holding as an age pensioner) and watching our management and Board do what they are most competent at and I won't be second guessing them. The next few weeks and months anns should be great reading. Historic stuff. And watch Howard YU, he is a beauty.
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G'day Gazman. Check out The Sparkler's post of last night with...
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