What you’re suggesting is a $200m drop in market cap due to 20koz reduction in 2020 production. Even if we assumed A$2000/oz margins - that 20koz is worth but A$40m pre-tax. It’s also key to note this production is not lost per se - the ounces are still in the ground but will be mined at a later period. Not saying there won’t be a drop to $3.50, there very well could be, I just don’t see that move as rational.
There’s going to be some seriously big numbers coming out of Haile in H2 and costs will be dirt cheap. Below is the best and worst cases for H2 based on guidance and H1 performance.
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