My god it must take some research and intellect to predict a lower commodity price when that commodity is in a downtrend.
The revelations are breathtaking.
The real trick of course is to call the bottom. However, what I see is that all guru's adjust for a lower bottom as their previously called target is reached.
Now, what I learn from guru's is bugger all about a commodity and a great deal about how to be a guru :)
Like any expert - a lot of sperting and very little else :)