Part of the difficulty faced by the gold specs is that they need the 'stampeding herd' menatality alive and well to run. In other words, they need a shot of 'irrational exhuberance' to set them off.
And this is difficult to come by in a market such as this where fear and uncertainty prevail. The "herd" is skittish and unsure. Therefore, even when the POG rises, the spec. gold stocks remain static - blinded by the searchlight of uncertainty.
By contrast, NCM doesn't have the same shackles - it is invested in (rather than played) by the big funds and it has international exposure and attracts a serious foreign attention.
So what will 'awaken' the indifferent herd to the specs.?
Maybe it will be a spectacular gold discovery (of Poseidon-like mythical proportions) by one of the specs? Possible .. but the odds are against it.
Personally I think it will take a mega spike in the gold price - not to $1000 USD an oz - but maybe to $1,500 - $2000 an oz. For the spec. goldies to have their day in the sun NCM will have to break up into new highs (and that means a NCM s/p of over $40) ... When NCM is a $50 stock I will eat my metaphorical hat if the speculative herd has not awoken from its slumber.
It could be a longer wait for the specs. to run than most imagine.
That's why, at this stage of the game, I am content to stick with NCM.
There will be plenty of time to take profits from NCM amd transfer them to the specs to catch the 'tail of the tiger' in its most volatile and dangerous phase.
But, sadly, I fear that now is not the right time to have a big exposure to the gold specs as your money could be 'becalmed' for quite a while.
That's just my take on it for what it's worth ... be interesting to see how it all pans out.
