gold has topped, page-6

The problem we have is neither monetary policy or fiscal policy will work, this period is unlike the 30's in that private debt is much higher, the Fed has taken massive amounts of bad assets onto its balance sheet in order to get credit moving again, the problem is the sheer scale of private debt, the Fed's blow out in its balance sheet has been soaked up by the private sector in debt retirement. Obuma's fiscal stimulus is like water running into a colander, it cant run fast enough to fill it up because falls in consumption are draining it back out quicker than they can physically replace it, Muni's are cutting expenditure as fast and Obuma replaces it, household balance sheets are still at the most indebted they have ever been in the history of modern civilization, Schiller says the RE bear market might last another 5-7 years. On top of this expenditure will is exhausted, Bernanke wont be allowed to blow out the Fed balance sheet much more and Obuma wont will be politically inhibited from continuing to feed public money to private hands, the steam engine is going to run out of puff half way up the hill and watch out when it starts rolling the other way, the following is a more thorough explanation with respect to why it wont work along the exact same lines as I have been saying here for months

Great read - http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/06/after-the-crisis-macro-imbalance-credibility-and-reserve-currency/