"The only relationship that counts at a primary level is the $US...

"The only relationship that counts at a primary level is the $US Index"

I disagree Stockanalyst1. If it were true the gold price would fluctuate in opposite fashion to USD fluctuations and remain flat against other major currencies like the Euro and Swiss Franc. However, Woteva's and Adwebster's charts clearly show that gold has been making new highs in all currencies year-after-year since 2001.

"To try and forecast commodity movements in the turbulent whirlpool that is the US credit markets is just whistling & hoping. Most historical relationships have been so distorted by the sheer volume of actions by the Treasury + Fed it is all a guess."

This is lame, the Fed and Treasury are just pip-squeaks in reality. We need to keep our eyes on the ball. My analysis of US macroeconomic data, COMEX futures data and Market Vane bullish sentiment, suggests nothing much has really changed in the gold market this year. Sure, we've had a lot of unwinding by hedge funds but the same thing happened in 2006. All in all, the market is behaving consistently with what has transpired this decade.

Indeed, USD gold looks like it may close 2008 higher than 2007 (certainly AUD gold will) which would make it eight yrs in a row. Quite extraordinary given the amount of deleveraging that's been going on. This is all due to gold being money and retail investors continuing to protect themselves as they have been increasingly doing since the decade started.

All good stuff in my opinion.

Rowingboat.