Gold massive rebound a five-week high, page-46

Thomo

I am only focusing on producers because there are quite a few trading as if they were explorers, plus they have cash coming in the door.

The "safer" ones are NST, AQG, RRL, IGO (has base metals operations as well). I am waiting for the gold price to reach a bottom before buying into them - assuming the final bottom has not been reached.

I am not sure about BDR because we do not have consistent production figures from them based on their new mining contractor. They could turn out OK, but given the high stripping ratio (around 6:1, I think) mining costs could be a bit higher than they are claiming. Their milling operation looks good, ie they have upgraded their milling capacity from 3.5mtpa to 4.5mtpa. They have some debt which will hopefully be significantly reduced at the end of this quarter.

MLX looks OK so long as they can deliver on their Murchison mine to start producing in July/August 2015. They are well cashed up. I would buy them ahead of SLR.

RSG, PRU, EVR, TGZ, EVN all have considerable potential. EVR has a heap of debt which could become a massive problem, TGZ is almost debt free, PRU is debt free but is a higher cost operator and has problems getting consistent power to the mill (issues with power supplier), EVN has some debt and is not a low cost producer but has a hedge helping them and the benefit of a lower AUD;

TRY looks cheap (and is getting cheaper), but there could be a very good reason for that (debt being used for new mine development, which is low cost but only has a short life of 3 years at present).

I recently bought some SBM. My views about SBM are on that thread. They are profitable but have a horrible amount of debt. SBM is my lottery ticket on a much higher AUD POG and operational improvements.

I do not follow DRM, RMS, SAR to any great degree because of their size of operation or high operating costs. I liked what PXG was trying to achieve but perhaps they are going to be owned by another company.

In the case of MML, I am waiting to see what their new management can deliver. If the gold price does head down under USD1100. I think they will struggle very badly.

OGC probably only has the one mine left in the Philippines and may be expensive to buy. The NZ mines are high cost and I think they are going to be put on C&M. OGC should be pretty safe given their main income generator is very low cost. There is some debt.

RED is one I watch, but there is not way to determine if they will be a low cost operator or get the approvals to re-open their mine. It is only a small mine so not a lot of upside. past management has been hopeless.

I am holding some goldies mostly on the expectation of a bounce in the gold price next year. I think the POG could tank badly after the Chinese new year and reach a final low in mid to late 2015.

loki